November 29, 2012
On October 1st, 2012 the Federal Reserve released a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke given at the Economic Club of Indiana where he asked and then answered five key questions related to QI, or Qualitative Easing. VanEd is publishing these answers one at a time for our students to review.
The five questions are;
- What are the Fed's objectives, and how is it trying to meet them?
- What's the relationship between the Fed's monetary policy and the fiscal decisions of the Administration and the Congress?
- What is the risk that the Fed's accommodative monetary policy will lead to inflation?
- How does the Fed's monetary policy affect savers and investors?
- How is the Federal Reserve held accountable in our democratic society?
Today we are publishing the Chairman's response to the fourth question.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Economic Club of Indiana, Indianapolis, Indiana
"How Does the Fed's Monetary Policy Affect Savers and Investors?"
The concern about possible inflation is a concern about the future. One concern in the here and now is about the effect of low interest rates on savers and investors. My colleagues and I know that people who rely on investments that pay a fixed interest rate, such as certificates of deposit, are receiving very low returns, a situation that has involved significant hardship for some.
However, I would encourage you to remember that the current low levels of interest rates, while in the first instance a reflection of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, are in a larger sense the result of the recent financial crisis, the worst shock to this nation's financial system since the 1930s. Interest rates are low throughout the developed world, except in countries experiencing fiscal crises, as central banks and other policymakers try to cope with continuing financial strains and weak economic conditions.
A second observation is that savers often wear many economic hats. Many savers are also homeowners; indeed, a family's home may be its most important financial asset. Many savers are working, or would like to be. Some savers own businesses, and--through pension funds and 401(k) accounts--they often own stocks and other assets. The crisis and recession have led to very low interest rates, it is true, but these events have also destroyed jobs, hamstrung economic growth, and led to sharp declines in the values of many homes and businesses. What can be done to address all of these concerns simultaneously? The best and most comprehensive solution is to find ways to a stronger economy. Only a strong economy can create higher asset values and sustainably good returns for savers. And only a strong economy will allow people who need jobs to find them. Without a job, it is difficult to save for retirement or to buy a home or to pay for an education, irrespective of the current level of interest rates.
The way for the Fed to support a return to a strong economy is by maintaining monetary accommodation, which requires low interest rates for a time. If, in contrast, the Fed were to raise rates now, before the economic recovery is fully entrenched, house prices might resume declines, the values of businesses large and small would drop, and, critically, unemployment would likely start to rise again. Such outcomes would ultimately not be good for savers or anyone else.