Economics and Demographics (AICP CM)

The overall intent of this course is to serve as an introduction to the fields of economics and demographics. Although the quizzes and exams will be limited to the core concepts of the course, we implore you to dig into the subject and if you are interested in the technical information, to read through the appendices or to ask the instructors a question.

A review of the learning objectives notes that the purpose of the economics section is to provide an elemental understanding of core economic concepts and their application in public and private market settings. It takes a broad approach to the subject and includes many important economic concepts, including the interaction of supply and demand, elasticity, public goods and externalities. It also lays the groundwork of economic analysis, including economic base analysis and economic performance analysis. The intent of this section is not to leave the reader with the information to develop economic analysis, but rather to be able to read and understand economic analysis, particularly to assess whether or not the conclusions of a particular analysis are valid.

The relationship between the economy and the demographics of a community are inextricably linked. The demographics section identifies this linkage. In essence, economic growth leads to inward migration and an influx of population. The effects of economic growth are very much appreciable, as an influx of population impacts the demand of developed residential and non-residential property and the market equilibrium. An increase in demand leads to an increase in rent (the cost of owning or leasing a property) and an inflation in the asset market valuation of developed property. This leads to more construction and a greater supply of developed property. When more developed property is supplied to the market, rents decrease and equilibrium is reestablished.

This is a dynamic and iterative process, as is identified in the economics section of the course. Over the course of the last century, this has resulted in population shifts away from older industrial areas and to other regions in the west and the south. The demographics section of this course explains the underlying elements of population change, including migration. Beyond that, it details the demographic characteristics of a population, including the age and sex structure, race and ethnicity, and other descriptive attributes. It also covers the important aspects of the decennial census and other sources of demographic data that may be used to build a demographic profile of a community. Last, the demographics section of the course covers population projections.

Like the economics section of the course, the intent is not to leave the reader with the ability to develop population projections, but to be able to differentiate between the different methods of population projections and to understand that projections are development under a set of assumptions, which ought to be reviewed and analyzed before accepting the results of the projection. It is easy to influence a projection by using erroneous assumptions and inputs. It is imperative that the underlying methodology and assumptions be studied and analyzed before accepting any projection.

Course Outline

Introduction
1. Basic Economics
   • Market and Command Economies
   • Supply and Demand
   • Macroeconomics
   • Microeconomics
   • Elasticity
   • Efficiency, Competition, and Information
   • Public Goods
   • Externalities
2. Economic Analysis Methods
   • Economic Base Analysis
   • Unit and Timeframe of Analysis
   • Community Comparisons
   • Economic Performance Analysis
   • Information Sources
   • Computer Modeling
   • Spreadsheets and Databases
   • Statistical Software
3. Applying Economics
   • Reading and Understanding Economic Analyses
   • External and Internal Factors
   • Economic Planning and Strategies
   • Feasibility Studies and Market Analysis
   • Economic Development
4. Components of Population Change
   • Population Change
   • Births
   • Deaths
   • Migration
5. Demographic Concepts
   • Age and Sex
   • Census Data and Other Demographic Sources
6. Population Projections
   • Cohort Survival Models
   • Extrapolation of Observed Population Estimates to Project Population
   • Ratio or Step Down Models
   • Housing Unit Method
   • Symptomatic Methods of Population Projection
   
   Appendices

The course contains several practice quizzes and unit exams, and is completed with a multiple choice final exam.